What Brexit Teaches Us: Why Leaving CARICOM Could Cost Consumers More Than We Think
As discussion grows around Trinidad and Tobago possibly exiting CARICOM, it is important to pause and examine a real-world example of what happens when a country leaves a long-standing regional economic arrangement.
The United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union — Brexit — offers valuable lessons, particularly for consumers, food prices, and economic stability.
This is not about politics. It is about consumer impact.
Lesson 1: Trade Barriers Translate Directly into Higher Prices
When the UK left the EU, it exited:
The single market
Common standards
Frictionless trade arrangements
Almost immediately, UK businesses faced:
New customs paperwork
Border delays
Compliance costs
Higher transport and insurance fees
These costs did not stay with businesses. They were passed on to consumers.
Food prices rose sharply in the years following Brexit, and UK food exports to the EU dropped by over 20%, contributing to reduced supply and higher prices in domestic markets
Financial Times. Even years later, economists estimate Brexit reduced UK GDP by about 4%, weakening purchasing power and household resilience
The Guardian.
Key takeaway:
When trade becomes harder and more expensive, consumers pay.
Lesson 2: Food Security Is Especially Vulnerable
The UK relies heavily on food imports — much like Trinidad and Tobago.
After Brexit:
Border delays affected fresh food availability
Import costs increased
Labour shortages disrupted agriculture and food processing
Food inflation hit lower-income households hardest
Academic and policy research confirms Brexit altered food supply chains and increased the risk of a two-tier food system, where affordable quality food becomes less accessible to vulnerable groups
PMC.
Key takeaway:
Small disruptions in food supply chains can quickly become big problems for consumers.
Lesson 3: “Sovereignty” Does Not Automatically Mean Cheaper or Better
One argument used in Brexit was greater national control.
In practice, the UK still had to:
Follow EU standards to export
Negotiate new trade deals from a weaker position
Absorb economic shocks alone
Rather than gaining leverage, the UK found itself negotiating from outside a powerful bloc.
Key takeaway:
Leaving a regional bloc does not remove economic realities — it often reduces bargaining power.
What This Means for Trinidad and Tobago and CARICOM
CARICOM Imports and Why They Matter to Consumers
According to official trade data from Trinidad and Tobago’s Ministry of Finance and international trade databases (IMF / UN Comtrade), Trinidad and Tobago imports a measurable share of consumer-sensitive goods from CARICOM partners, principally Jamaica, Guyana, and Barbados, which together account for the majority of intra-CARICOM imports. These imports include rice and other cereals (largely from Guyana), edible oils and margarine, processed food preparations, meats, and food-related packaging materials such as aluminium containers. While CARICOM does not supply the bulk of Trinidad and Tobago’s total imports, the items it does supply are short-haul, regularly consumed goods that benefit from duty-free access, lower freight costs, and faster delivery times. Any disruption to these arrangements—through tariffs, new customs procedures, or reduced regional sourcing—would therefore be expected to affect availability and prices at the retail level more quickly than changes in export earnings, which tend to affect consumers more indirectly.
CARICOM provides:
Preferential access to regional markets
Reduced tariffs and common external trade protections
Regional food security initiatives
Intra-regional agricultural and manufacturing trade
In 2024 alone, Trinidad and Tobago earned over US$1.1 billion from trade with CARICOM, making it the country’s second-largest export market after the United States
Jamaica Gleaner.
CARICOM countries also collectively forgo customs revenue to support Trinidad and Tobago’s manufacturing exports — a concrete consumer-price stabilizing mechanism
CNW Network.
CARICOM’s 25 by 2025 (now extended to 2030) initiative directly targets reducing the region’s food import bill and improving food affordability through intra-regional production and trade
CARICOM.
If Trinidad and Tobago Were to Exit CARICOM, Consumers Could Face:
Higher food prices due to new tariffs and logistics costs
Reduced access to regional agricultural supply
Increased exposure to global price shocks
Weaker negotiating power with extra-regional suppliers
Greater strain on low- and middle-income households
Just as Brexit showed, these effects would not be immediate headlines, but gradual, persistent increases in cost of living.
The Consumer Question That Must Be Asked
Before any exit discussion proceeds, one key question must be answered:
How will this decision protect consumers from higher food prices, supply disruptions, and reduced economic resilience?
Brexit shows us that regional integration, while imperfect, often protects consumers more than isolation does.
CAIR’s Position
CAIR encourages evidence-based discussion, consumer impact assessments, and public transparency before any policy direction that could affect food affordability, economic stability, and household welfare.
Consumers deserve facts — not slogans.
References
UK / Brexit Lessons (The Warning Signs)
1. Brexit and UK Food Exports Decline
Source: Food and Drink Federation (UK)
2. Brexit Impact on Trade Frictions
Source: British Chambers of Commerce (via SME Magazine / BCC)
https://www.smeweb.com/eu-trade-getting-harder-say-uk-exporters/
3. Brexit and Long-Term GDP Impact
Source: Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) / Eunews
4. Food Supply Chain Vulnerability (Peer-Reviewed)
Source: PubMed Central (PMC) / NIH
Trinidad & Tobago / CARICOM (The Current Reality)
5. T&T’s Regional Trade Advantage
Source: Kaieteur News (Reporting on Regional Trade Data 2025)
https://kaieteurnewsonline.com/2025/12/22/regional-leaders-rebuke-kamla-over-attack-on-caricom/
6. CARICOM and Forgone Customs Revenue
Source: Caribbean National Weekly (CNW) / TTBizLink
7. Food Security Policy (Vision 25 by 2030)
Source: CARICOM Secretariat
https://caricom.org/food-security-initiative-expanded-extended-to-2030/
Official Trade Repositories (For Deep Fact-Checking)
UN Comtrade (Live Data):
https://comtradeplus.un.org/ T&T Ministry of Finance (Review of the Economy):
https://www.finance.gov.tt/
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